Projektets teoretiske ståsted baseres på et litteratur review for teorien anvendt i artiklen ”Empirical evidence on the reaction speeds of housing prices and sales to demand shocks” (Oikarinen 2012) , der undersøger dynamikken mellem boligpriser og antal handler (transaktionsvolumen) i respons på efterspørgselschok samt resultaterne forskningsartiklen ”The Time-Varying Effect of Interest Rates on Housing Prices” (Lee and Park 2022), der påviser en 12-15 måneders tidsmæssig forsinkelse mellem ændring i renten og boligpriserne, for det sydkoreanske boligmarked
Resultatet af det finske studie konkluderer at ændring af renten er signifikant ift. at kunne forklare ændringer i transaktionsvolumen på det finske boligmarked og resultatet af det Sydkoreanske studie konkluderer at der er en tidsforskydning mellem ændringer i renten og boligpriserne.
Forskningsspørgsmål
Hvilken påvirkning har renteændringer haft for antallet af handler for enfamilieshuse og ejerlejligheder, i Danmark, i perioden januar 2006 til oktober 2023.
Underspørgsmål/analysespørgsmål
Med det formål at afdække konkret viden, til besvarelse af overstående forskningsspørgsmål samt udlede forklaring for hvorledes renteændringer, i perioden januar 2006 til oktober 2023, har været influerende ift. antallet af bolighandler, opstilles nedenstående analyseområder.
(1) What is the delay between interest rate changes and observed responses in housing transactions?
The magnitude and statistical significance of distributed lag coefficients are central to understanding the dynamic adjustment path in housing transactions. Identifying the mean lag length is essential for distinguishing between contemporaneous and delayed pass-through effects, informing both structural interpretation and forecasting accuracy. The question directly concerns whether interest-rate shocks behave as immediate demand shifters or as gradual liquidity constraints with delayed behavioral responses.
(2) How do the dynamic responses vary across property types and regional housing markets?
The Danish market exhibits structural segmentation: flats and single-family houses differ in turnover rates, buyer composition, and liquidity; regions differ in supply elasticities, migration flows, and price levels. From an econometric standpoint, this heterogeneity may manifest as parameter instability across subsamples or as varying lag structures. Testing for such heterogeneity provides insight into whether interest-rate shocks propagate uniformly or whether local market fundamentals modulate the transmission mechanism.
(3) Do short term interest rates effect exhibit nonlinearities consistent with distinct buyer regimes at low versus higher short term interest rate levels?
Credit constraints and expectation-driven behaviour as well as empirical evidence suggests that buyers may react asymmetrically at different short term interest rate levels. For example, extremely low short rates may induce front-loading of purchases, whereas high short rates may suppress liquidity-constrained buyers disproportionately.
Afgrænsning
I undersøgelsen skelnes ikke mellem, hvorvidt der har været kriser eller ej– dette set i lyset af, at der altid vil være kriser, og at der i dette projekt ikke tages højde for kriser eller lignende hændelser (fra januar 2006 – oktober 2023 har der været forskellige kriser, fx Corona krise, finanskrise, boligbobler, likviditetskrise, krige og konflikter, stigende inflation, skatterabat ifm. boligkøb o. lign.).
